USC Predict COVID19Social Distancing Scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-28) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.30% | 0.00% | 0.90 |
| 1 | 35.30% | 58.30% | 1.43 |
| 2 | 48.20% | 116.10% | 1.95 |
| 3 | 61.20% | 174.40% | 2.48 |
| 4 | 74.10% | 232.30% | 3.00 |
| 5 | 87.00% | 290.10% | 3.53 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 348.40% | 4.05 |
Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 0.9
- % of original R0: 22.3
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.43
- % of original R0: 35.3
- % Increase from current: 58.3
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.95
- % of original R0: 48.2
- % Increase from current: 116.1
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.48
- % of original R0: 61.2
- % Increase from current: 174.4
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3
- % of original R0: 74.1
- % Increase from current: 232.3
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.53
- % of original R0: 87
- % Increase from current: 290.1
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 4.05
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 348.4
